Predicting Box - Office Success of Movies in the U . S . Market
نویسنده
چکیده
The movie industry is a multi-billion dollar industry, generating approximately $10 billion of revenue annually. In recent years, movies have generally become divided into two categories: blockbusters and independent movies. Studios have focused on relying on only a handful of extremely expensive movies every year to make sure they remain profitable. It is estimated that 80% of the industry’s profits over the last decade is generated from just 6% of the films released; 78% of movies have lost money of the same time period. These blockbuster movies emphasize the spectacular: casting as much star power as possible and pairing it with high production value. The result of this is a sky-rocketing budget. It is estimated that the average movie now costs $100.3 million after including production and marketing expenses. However, “Hollywood is the land of hunch and wild guess,” so it’s difficult to predict whether these high-budget films will actually make a profit.
منابع مشابه
Box Office Movie Rating and Take Prediction
Predicting movies’ box office performance is a bit like gambling and predicting the stock market: there’s a lot of luck involved but analyzing the system’s input frequently leads a better result. The inputs to box office prediction are infinite for the most part but there’s little to argue that the actors involved in a new work and those actors’ past performances play a huge role in a movie’s s...
متن کاملPredicting Movie Prices Through Dynamic Social Network Analysis
This paper explores the effectiveness of social network analysis and sentiment analysis in predicting trends. Our research focuses on predicting the success of new movies over their first four weeks in the box office after opening. Specifically, we try to predict prices on the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX), a prediction market on movie gross income, and predict the ratio of gross income to pro...
متن کاملEmpirical generalizations of demand and supply dynamics for movies
a r t i c l e i n f o High financial risks in production and marketing, the hedonic nature of products, and the global cultural relevance of movies have encouraged a substantial number of researchers to analyze the success drivers of movies. This research provides empirical generalizations in managing the supply and demand of motion pictures. Prior empirical research either ignored the endogene...
متن کاملPredicting the Financial Success of Hollywood Movies Using an Information Fusion Approach
Hollywood has often been called the land of hunches and wild guesses. The uncertainty associated with the predictability of product demand makes the movie business a risky endeavor. Therefore, predicting the box-office receipts of a particular motion picture has intrigued many scholars and industry leaders as a difficult and challenging problem. In this study, with a rather large and feature ri...
متن کاملSelf-organized coordination in collective response of non-interacting agents: Emergence of bimodality in box-office success
Many socio-economic phenomena are characterized by the appearance of a few “hit” products having a substantially higher popularity compared to their often equivalent competitors, reflected in a bimodal distribution of success (response). Using the example of box-office performance of movies, we show that the empirically observed bimodality can emerge via self-organization in a model where agent...
متن کامل